Prediction Onslaught!

Hey, the Academy Award Nominations are out! And that means that I am obligated, as a guy with a website, to make my opinions known throughout the Internet!

Best Picture

Nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways

I really wanted to see Finding Neverland, but I, um, never got around to it. I hear that also describes a lot of other people's situations, except for the part about wanting to see it. There's been a lot of press about the other four movies, though -- it seems like Million Dollar Baby snuck up on the critics, while The Aviator was practically grown in a vat to be a Best Picture nominee. I just saw Sideways this weekend, and I thought it was quite enjoyable, but it may not have been big enough to be Best Picture. You know, it's not a sweeping epic. Ray is good, but I think that's almost entirely due to Jamie Foxx.

I think The Aviator is going to win this. It's the only one that has that Best Picture feel. To me.

Best Actor

Nominees: Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Jamie Foxx (Ray)

Jamie Foxx has this locked up, especially after his Golden Globes acceptance speech. Personally, I think it's a little weird that he'll be partly getting rewarded for an acceptance speech, but that's the way things go. Hey, I bet Jim Carrey is a little ticked off that Foxx is the first "In Living Color" star to get an Academy Award Nomination, huh?

About the other nominees: Cheadle was in a small movie that a lot of people didn't see, Depp is the same thing besides being Johnny Depp, DiCaprio still needs to work off some of that Titanic thing, and Eastwood is kind of a surprise here. I mean, people are raving about his directorial work, but the only person I've heard praise his acting was Hilary Swank. Incidentally, I have to echo almost everyone else: Paul Giamatti got shafted for the second year in a row. I hope he still gets to be a lead actor occasionally.

Best Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening (Being Julia), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Kate Winslet? At the same time as Leonardo DiCaprio? Huh. Hers is one of only two nominees for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which a lot of people thought was a great movie. I imagine that Annette Bening, Catalina Sandino Moreno, and Imelda Staunton were very good too, but I do not know anything about their movies. So I'm going to assert that Hilary Swank is going to win her second Oscar. Yeah, you heard me. Hopefully, this will not result in her spending another five years wearing really skimpy gowns in an attempt to prove how gosh-darn feminine she is.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Alan Alda (The Aviator), Thomas Haden Church (Sideways), Jamie Foxx (Collateral), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), Clive Owen (Closer)

That's three television actors, although I guess the two nominations mean that Jamie Foxx is a bona-fide movie star now. I'm pleased to see Thomas Haden Church here, because he was good in Sideways (and The Specials) and it's always nice to see people avoid getting stereotyped as "that dumb guy from the television show". And I'm pleased to see that Alan Alda is still alive, although I guess I would have known that if I'd been watching "The West Wing" this season. I would think that Morgan Freeman would win, because he's the most famous strictly-movie actor here, but I think I'm going to go with Clive Owen as a mild upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Laura Linney (Kinsey), Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda), Natalie Portman (Closer)

Well . . . I have no idea. None. Laura Linney? Sure, why not?

Best Director

Nominees: Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Mike Leigh (Vera Drake), Alexander Payne (Sideways), Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)

I think this is probably between Clint Eastwood and Martin Scorsese. Either one could win, but I think Hilary Swank will absorb the praise for that film. And Martin Scorsese has never won, and I think that's got to bother some people. Spielberg finally got his, so why not give something to Scorsese? Besides, I think The Aviator is going to get Best Picture, and this often goes with that.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Aviator, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, Vera Drake

Oh, how I wish The Incredibles would win this. But it won't. I think this will be the bone thrown to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which was a complicated, clever movie. I think, especially with Jim Carrey not getting nominated, people will feel that the screenplay was the reason that movie was good.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Before Sunset, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, The Motorcycle Diaries, Sideways

Well . . . maybe Finding Neverland gets rewarded for being British. I dunno.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: The Aviator, House of Flying Daggers, The Passion of the Christ, The Phantom of the Opera, A Very Long Engagement

Oh, that's a good question. I hope House of Flying Daggers wins, because it's beautiful. I hope Phantom doesn't get rewarded just because there was a lot of fake gold on screen.

Best Editing

Nominees: The Aviator, Collateral, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray

Oh! This has to go to The Aviator for all those shots of planes flying around. Okay, I've never actually seen the movie (although I probably will in the next few days) but I saw a making-of thing, and I liked the shots of the many airplanes.

Best Art Direction

Nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, A Very Long Engagement

Unfortunately, I guess Phantom will be rewarded for its garish tastelessness. I liked the way the Lemony Snicket movie looked more, but I do not delude myself that the Academy shares my views.

Best Costumes

Nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, Ray ,Troy

It could be Troy, since its costumes were least like modern-day outfits, but I think the aviator caps and flight jackets should win. That's a good look. And where's Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow?

Best Original Score

Nominees: Finding Neverland, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Passion of the Christ, The Village

I liked the music in the Lemony Snicket trailers, but that was from The Addams Family so it doesn't count. I think the Harry Potter music was quite evocative, so I expect it to win here.

Best Original Song

Nominees: "Look to Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" (The Chorus), "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" (The Motorcycle Diaries), "Learn To Be Lonely" (The Phantom of the Opera), "Believe" (The Polar Express), "Accidentally in Love" (Shrek 2)

I don't like any of the songs I recognize, but I think the magic name "Andrew Lloyd Webber" will impress the voters. Unfortunately.

Best Makeup

Nominees: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Passion of the Christ, The Sea Inside

The Passion of the Christ had a guy covered in gore for two hours. That's good makeup, right? It results in monster movies winning sometimes.

Best Sound

Nominees: The Aviator, The Incredibles, The Polar Express, Ray, Spider-Man 2

I normally guess that the movie with the most gunshots wins. And I think, in this case, that's Spider-Man 2 although I guess in the scenes where Hughes was shooting the war scenes in his movies -- okay, never mind. I say Spider-Man 2.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: The Incredibles, The Polar Express, Spider-Man 2

Same answer, except with the digression about The Aviator.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban; I, Robot; Spider-Man 2

Harry Potter had more special effects, and I believe that Hollywood thinks that "more" is the same thing as "better".

Best Animated Film

Nominees: The Incredibles, Shark Tale, Shrek 2

The Incredibles was better than Shrek 2.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: The Chorus (Les Choristes) - France, Downfall (Der Untergang) - Germany, The Sea Inside (Mar adentro) - Spain, As in Heaven (Så son i himmelen) - Sweden, Yesterday - South Africa

The German movie is about World War II, and those are the ones that usually win in the documentary category. I think it'll win here.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Born Into Brothels: Calcutta's Red Light Kids, The Story of the Weeping Camel, Super Size Me, Tupac: Resurrection, Twist of Faith

Okay, aside from the WWII rule, I generally figure that if I've heard of a nominated Documentary (or Foreign Language Film), that means it'll win. For some reason, I don't think Super Size Me will win, because it's not as heartbreaking as the movie about children born into prostitution. Oh -- and I don't care about Michael Moore and Fahrenheit 9/11. At all.

Best Documentary Short

Nominees: Autism Is a World, The Children of Leningradsky, Hardwood, Mighty Times: The Children's March, Sister Rose's Passion

I've never seen these. I don't know how to see these. I don't know where I'd go to see these. I think The Children of Leningradsky continue the children-in-peril theme.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees: Birthday Boy, Gopher Broke, Guard Dog, Lorenzo, Ryan

I think I might be able to see these. They're in those animation shows that tour the art houses, right? I'm going to guess that Guard Dog wins, because, um . . . people like dogs?

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees: Everything in This Country Must, Little Terrorist, 7:35 de la mañana, Two Card, One Night, Wasp

Man, I can see why the awards ceremony doesn't do these in this order, because this is kind of a flat way to end. I think Little Terrorist wins, because it's the Year of the Children (in the backup categories)!