Knee-Jerk Academy Award Predictions

The nominations are out! Time to predict! No time to wait! No time to see Mystic River! Predict predict predict! Forecast! Be first! First is best! Now! Now now now!

Or something like that.

Best Picture

Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Lost in Translation: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World; Mystic River; Seabiscuit

Wow, two movies with colons in them. And coincidentally, those are the two I saw. I liked them, too. Although to be honest, I liked Master and Commander more. I've heard very good things about the other movies, except for Seabiscuit, which I regard as some sort of joke by the nominating committee.

Everyone thinks ROTK (which I'm abbreviating because I'm going to have to mention it a lot, and a ten-word title is kind of long) is going to win, and I do too. Good for it.

Best Actor

Nominees: Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl), Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog), Jude Law (Cold Mountain), Bill Murray (Lost in Translation), Sean Penn (Mystic River)

I have trouble imagining Jude Law being given an Oscar. And although Johnny Depp was the best thing in a great movie, he's still probably too . . . Johnny Depp to win. Everyone says great things about Bill Murray's performance in Lost in Translation (which I promise I will get around to seeing), but again, he's Bill Murray. So that leaves Ben Kingsley (who won for Gandhi) and Sean Penn (who's been nominated three times before, although one of those was for I Am Sam, which I choose to ignore).

Sean Penn should win in a walk. He's Sean Penn. But I'm delighted that Johnny Depp got nominated, because it means that the awards ceremony will contain a clip of Captain Jack Sparrow, so the evening can't be a total loss.

Best Actress

Nominees: Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give), Samantha Morton (In America), Charlize Theron (Monster), Naomi Watts (21 Grams)

It's the first category that doesn't have a movie with a colon in the title! How exciting. Naomi Watts was just on Inside the Actor's Studio, which I guess means she's getting more respect. Come to think of it, Jude Law was on this year too. Interesting. I wonder if that means that the James Lipton treatment is a standard part of campaigning for an Oscar. Anyway, not only is Monster the only movie I saw, it's almost the only one I've even heard of.

So Charlize Theron wins! Not just because I saw it; she's really, really good. I know that doesn't always translate into winning an Oscar, but keep in mind that she was playing a prostitute, which is a good indicator for Best Actress winners. Plus, she put on weight for the role, so there's the Raging Bull theory, too.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Alec Baldwin (The Cooler), Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams), Djimon Hounsou (In America), Tim Robbins (Mystic River), Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)

Hmm. I've seen none of these. I haven't even heard much about them. So I'm just going to indulge my own preferences. This is a character actor's award. So Alec Baldwin and Tim Robbins? I'm sorry, but you're too big-time for this one. Benicio Del Toro is a great character actor, but he already won one for Traffic, which means that he's getting nominated for a suspiciously similar part. At least, I think it's a similar part. I didn't see Traffic either, but I know both movies involved cocaine.

Anyway, I think Ken Watanabe wins. I heard he was pretty good, and I think the Academy will enjoy giving an award to him if for no other reason than to annoy Tom Cruise, who wasn't even nominated.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog), Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April), Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River), Holly Hunter (thirteen), Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)

I have no idea. Marcia Gay Harden, I guess, because her movie was the most critically acclaimed.

Best Director

Nominees: Fernando Meirelles (City of God), Peter Jackson (ROTK), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation), Peter Weir (Master and Commander), Clint Eastwood (Mystic River)

I don't think this one is as much of a lock as a lot of people are saying. I don't think the academy necessarily feels it owes Peter Jackson anything. I mean, you've got Clint Eastwood here, and you know they love giving directing awards to actors. And from what I hear, Sofia Coppola did an outstanding job with her movie. And if you think it's easy directing a costume drama on a boat, Peter Weir would disagree. I could easily see Eastwood or Coppola getting it.

However, Peter Jackson is the way to bet. I mean, did you see that thing? It's brilliant!

Best Foreign Film

Nominees: The Barbarian Invasions (Canada), Zelary (Czech Republic), The Twilight Samurai (Japan), Twin Sisters (Netherlands), Evil (Sweden)

Canada? Really? Huh. It's in French, so I guess it counts, but that doesn't seem particularly "foreign" to me. It's about socialized medicine, though, which isn't a particularly American topic.

I hope Evilwins. In this category, I mean. Not in general.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: American Splendor, City of God, ROTK, Mystic River, Seabiscuit

Technically, I should have put the names of the screenwriters there. But that's a lot of work, what with the parentheses and the italicizing and all, and besides, you've never heard of most of these people. They're all good at their jobs and I believe that the writing is the basis of movies, but I have to draw a line somewhere or I'll end up listing all sixty people in the Makeup category.

This is a category that's usually used as a consolation prize, so I expect American Splendor to win. It's too bad Paul Giamatti couldn't get a nomination, though.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Barbarian Invasions, Dirty Pretty Things, Finding Nemo, In America, Lost in America

Do you think it's strange that one of the nominations is foreign (well, French Canadian) and two others mention America?

My theory is that Lost in America will split its consolation votes, with some people voting in the Best Director category (where it might win) and some voting here. However, all the Finding Nemo consolation votes are right here, and since it was the biggest money-maker of the year, it's gotta win something. Finding Nemo wins.

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Brother Bear, Finding Nemo, The Triplets of Belleville

Finding Nemo wins. Don't be stupid.

Best Art Direction

Hey, is it okay if I stop listing all the nominees? I'm tired of reformatting them. Thanks. Anyway, Art Direction. I actually don't think ROTK wins this, since there are other costume dramas around. Going by my personal preferences, I say The Last Samurai loses and Master and Commander wins.

Best Cinematography

Boy, can you believe they didn't nominate ROTK here? I realize it didn't have as many swooping shots of New Zealand as Fellowship did, but come on! I guess Cold Mountain could win. It's got swooping shots of mountains, right? My theory is that Swooping Shots=Great Cinematography. Master and Commander could also take it.

Best Sound Mixing

Let's see . . . no submarine movie, so go with the movie with the most gunshots. That's either Master and Commander or Pirates of the Caribbean. I guess it'll be Pirates.

Best Sound Editing

This is my favorite category, because I like all three movies. I think Finding Nemoshould win, because it seems like editing together the sound for an animated film would be a lot harder.

Best Original Score

Beats me. Probably House of Sand and Fog, because James Horner is a pretty safe bet.

Best Original Song

The old theory about songs from animated Disney movies is no longer in effect. It turns out that the song from ROTK was partially written by Annie Lennox, so that's what I vote for.

Best Costumes

Elves! Elf outfits! ROTK!

Best Documentary Feature

Ooh, The Weather Underground! I'd love to see that documentary. That's my usual tactic for picking this category, and it rarely works. For example, last year I wanted to see Spellbound, but it didn't win. I didn't get around to seeing it either. Actually, I just now bought it on DVD. Seriously, between the beginning of this paragraph and now.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Although I approve of the pun in the title "Ferry Tales", I like the sound of "Asylum".

Best Film Editing

Hmm. ROTK: 201 minutes. Master and Commander: 138 minutes. Pirates of the Caribbean: 143 minutes. Frankly, all three of these movies could have been shorter, so I think they all could have used more editing. However, as the shortest, Master and Commander takes it. I mean, come on, you're going to tell me a three-and-a-half hour movie was the best-edited?

Best Makeup

It's the same three movies as last time! Well, Pirates had zombies, but ROTK had elves. ROTK, I guess.

Best Animated Short Film

Again, I don't even know where I would go to see these if I wanted to. Best title (and therefore my pick): "Gone Nutty".

Best Live Action Short Film

Oh, how about "(A) Torzija (A Torsion)"? Short movie, long title.

Best Visual Effects

For the third time, the only nominees are ROTK, M&C, and Pirates. Since I want to hedge my bets and I predicted the other two in Editing and Makeup, this time I predict Pirates of the Caribbean.

Okay, that's all.